Calculators

Expected value is the long-term profit you can expect from a strategy. You look at all the possible outcomes, the chance of each one happening, and the amount you’d win or lose in each case, then roll that into a single number. If a bet has positive expected value, it’s mispriced in your favor—you’re getting paid more than you should if it wins. This is the metric we use to spot positive value bets, the ones that are genuinely mispriced.

Yes, even the best positive value bets can lose. Unlike arbitrage, which is riskless when you execute it correctly, value betting comes with swings. You can have losing days, or even a few in a row. The point is the long run—over hundreds of mispriced bets, the edge shows up, which is why consistency and discipline matter so much.

Finding these on your own is basically impossible. That’s why we built our Positive Value software. It compares prices across bookmakers, looks for bets that are out of line with the market, and highlights the ones that are mispriced. When it finds a genuine edge, it sends it to you in real time so you can act before the price moves.

Bookmakers publish millions of live odds around the clock and update them constantly. Most of those numbers are set by models rather than humans, which means errors slip through, sometimes big ones. Those are the bets that fall through the cracks—our software spots them the moment they appear.